7c-ranch

22 Comments

    • ON: Mon Mar 31st 09:42 AM
      Commented on:
      No Sign of a Credit Crunch Outside of Real Estate
      I don't doubt the anecdotal evidence of good borrowers getting credit. The probablem is always from the marginal consumer/small business.
      I would refer you to the following paper presented at Brandeis in March:
      Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown†
      David Greenlaw, Jan Hatzius, Anil K Kashyap, Hyun Song Shin
      US Monetary Policy Forum Conference Draft
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Mar 26th 23:11 PM
      Commented on:
      The Fed is Deflating: 10 Reasons Why
      Excellent-very thoughtful and thought provoking.
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    • ON: Fri Mar 21st 15:01 PM
      Commented on:
      Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?
      Is this serious? I would love to see returns of investors that simply use bills plus a simple risk premium as the discount rate. Please keep posts useful.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed May 30th 11:34 AM
      Commented on:
      US Savings Rate Based On Outdated Methods of Calculation
      Everyone, I thought, knew this. It is curious that we are just now publicly recognizing that Americans do save.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu May 24th 09:13 AM
      Commented on:
      Sandisk Shouldn't Be Threatened By Intel/STMicro Agreement
      Thanks, well written.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu May 10th 09:06 AM
      Commented on:
      Whole Foods Earnings Disappoint - Now It's a Bounce Candidate
      Alan, you have had a great call on the recent price movement; I thank you for that. I respect the thoroughness of managements comments. I also think this is my generation's (50+) pharmaceutical company. I worry about p/e compression but I am long term very bullish on this company.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Apr 26th 10:14 AM
      Commented on:
      John Hussman: Don't Believe Stocks Are Cheap Based On The Fed Model
      If you are suggesting that stock and bond data pre 1980 are valid ignores the incredible changes that occured; namely: Rule 415, rapidly declining transaction costs, information/tranparenc... to a broad array of market participants. In the 80's we recognized the discrepancy in the data; you are arguing an old point which was resolved long ago.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Apr 26th 09:18 AM
      Commented on:
      Despite Yesterday's Rally, We're Still In Trouble
      I have rarely in the last 30 years seen a scenario where lenders had the opportunity to get into trouble that they avoided. That said, US equities are severely underowned; while yield producing funds are still highly sought after. This could end badly for fixed income investors and tangentially affect US equities; but to suggest that US equities are expensive or investors are irrationally exhuberant is wrong.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Apr 20th 10:21 AM
      Commented on:
      John Hussman: The Good News Is, Hedges Are Cheap Here
      Read Hussman's archives, his comments have been wrong for 20 percent at least. I suspect, like Kass, he will be right at some point--who cares.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Mar 19th 10:48 AM
      Commented on:
      To Worry or Not to Worry: The Eternal Market Question
      Very complete summary of both sides-helpful.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Mar 17th 12:01 PM
      Commented on:
      Commodities Outperform During Equity Market Downturns
      This analysis misses the point I have made for over one year. If a vast percentage of investors are seeking non-correlated returns by investing in similar asset classes won't those assets perform the same as traditional asset classes. Put simply, if everyone is seeking alpha it is no longer alpha.These strategies have only been employed by retail investors since 2002; thus making 5 year comparisons invald. Anecdotally, at a fundraiser last night, no one asked me about the stock market, they wanted to know why gold was trading so poorly.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Mar 15th 09:55 AM
      Commented on:
      Whole Foods: Love the Company, Avoiding the Stock
      Very good analysis. I like the store as well and have been looking for an entry point. Does the foregoing suggest 38 as the level--or no level?
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Mar 9th 10:14 AM
      Commented on:
      Have We Already Reached the Market's Turning Point?
      Thank you for the very thoughtful coments. I start by stating that most people. like myself are neither permabull nor permabear; I merely want to employ capital in a thoughtful, efficient manner. This analysis, in one form or another is going around quite a bit. I am confused. I did my own research and found that indeed US corporate profits increased from 7% of GDP in 2001 to 10.3% of GDP currently. This analysis at its core proposes that this measure means US markets are expensive to EU markets, among other things. When I look at EU corporate profits to GDP they have been at 10-11% since 2001;in fact they were 7% of GDP last in 1994. Why then is not the conclusion that US company's outsourcing production to other countries; following the lead of EU counterparts, causing the percentage of profits to GDP to mirror the EU ratio? On that basis, the risk to the market is protectionism and capital controls that would push the percentage in the US lower. If that were to occur, I agree the market would decline dramatically. Otherwise, the analysis seems not to fit the anecdotal and actual changes in how US companies compete globally.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Mar 9th 09:52 AM
      Commented on:
      Merrill: Intel's More Interested In Crushing AMD Than Improving Margins
      I think Osha is correct, in fact the trade of last year was long INTC/short AMD on that basis and relative financial strength to carry out the threat. Now, what is wrong with a dominant market player, with good cash flow and 50% GM's? Does it have to get back to 60% GM to warrant a pretty secure 18 P/E or even suggest a 20% P/E?
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Mar 9th 09:45 AM
      Commented on:
      P/E Ratios at Japanese Electronics Companies
      Thank you.
      View article »
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