Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR)
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- General Discussion on TR
- Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
- Dividend Investment Myths [view article]
- Treat Yourself to Tootsie Roll Industries [view article]
- 100 Stocks to Offset Rising Food Prices [view article]
- Fast Money Recap. 3/7/08: Oil Will Reach $378? [view article]
- Losing Patience With Tootsie Roll Industries [view article]
loading ...Recent TR Articles
- Dividend Investment Myths
- Hershey: Weighing a Sweet Deal With Tootsie?
- Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II
- Treat Yourself to Tootsie Roll Industries
- Tootsie Roll 'Pops' - But Don't Get Too Excited
- Six Chocolate Stocks to Sweeten Up Your Portfolio
- My Favorite Stocks vs. Mr. Market
- Which Is Sweeter: J.M. Smucker or Tootsie Roll?
- Losing Patience With Tootsie Roll Industries
- Eight Halloween Stock Tricks.... I Mean Picks
- Full List of Articles »
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Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
Poor Fred Hickey. He just won't let go of his AAPL short. He has been losing money on it since $70/shr. ReplyDividend Investment Myths [view article]
Thanks captainccs for your comments. You are absolutely right about the fact that I'm data mining. However, as with any stock purchase you face the potential for downside risk when you buy. For this reason, I only data mine the stocks that are part of Mergent's Dividend Achiever Index (approximately 350 companies) so that I don't experience buyer's remorse once I'm in a stock. If the price falls after the purchase, I can easily "justify" my position with the mantra of "buy and hold." In the meantime, I'll be compensated for my wait.As you pointed out, I selectively examine only those that pay dividends. Of course, in reality I only chose those that are current and former Dividend Achievers. This means that I forego the opportunity to get the highest yields and the stellar performing non-dividend paying stocks. However, I am assured by the fact that management has an interest in seeing that the shareholders are compensated for their wait for the "promises" to deliver to materialize.
Reply
ts
Dividend Investment Myths [view article]
Intentional or not, what you listed as yearly performance appears to be performance off a recent 52-week low, two very different things. ReplyDividend Investment Myths [view article]
Buy dividend payers and avoid financials! ReplyDividend Investment Myths [view article]
Using the growth since the last 52 week low as an indicator of long term grow is just pure nonsense. All it shows is that these companies do bounce back and that is just reversion to the mean working. The only other path would have been to zero. This is an example of data mining,Also note these two statements:
>> I always focus on those Dividend Achievers that are within 5% of their 1-year low
>> When considering stocks to buy, avoid those that are in industries which are at or near a new high.
Dividends are used to select a universe of stocks but nowhere is there a comparison between this universe and a universe of non divided paying stocks. All the above says is buy low, sell higher.
Of the above list I hold FDO, the 5th or 6th highest bouncer-back on the list at 70.45%. I bought it three years ago when I thought it was at a low. Current Average Growth Rate (CAGR), a dismal 4.4%. Dividends did little to support this stock. Reply
Treat Yourself to Tootsie Roll Industries [view article]
The Gordons hasn't done anything for the last 10 years, ROE is even much less than it was 10 years ago. I agree they're conservative but they're not able.Hersheys on the other hand doubled their earnings the last 10 years while increasing ROE from 30% to 80%, that's what I call a great able management. Reply
Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
gss is ramping ops right now ReplySchweitzer
Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
Great comment on Barrons. That's why Eli's winnowing is useful. ReplyMid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
RE Mario Gabelli:Correction: 'outlive' (not out live) Reply
Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
Those who bet on NG will be dissapointed. The supply will surprise on the upside while the demand will be few percentage points down vs last year due to the use of more efficient equipment and due to closing industrial facilities in the auto industry and moving various manufacturing operations to China. As for UPL and SWN, particularly Ultra will require a lot of capital to fund the capex. Dilution or convertibles anyone? ReplyMid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
You know these interviews have little to do with the guest's position, they are all talking their bias and their books. Historically these Round-table have not got a good reputation as guides to future markets. We all know that the financial sector has more work to do, and that means equities in general do not do well. Gold always when the Fed is pressed to keep the windows open and the presses running. But spare us the pretense on specific stocks. Barron's is so 1980 if that recent. ReplyMid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
In 1982: Oil at $40, DOW at 1000.In 2008: Oil at $140, DOW at 12,000.
In 26 years, oil increased 3.5 times, DOW increased 12 times! You tell me where the bubble is... Reply
Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
RE Marc Faber:Shorting X and long GLD doesn't make sense. Probably right about X as earnings will not keep pace for various reasons, even without a slowdown in China (which we don't expect to happen anyway). However, following Faber's logic, slower growth will put downward pressure on gold as one of the side effects is lower inflation.
RE Mario Gabelli:
The Gordon couple have been 'too old' for the past seven years and at this rate will out live most of us and still control TR. Just in spite of all the pundits that have been advising them to sell, they will end up leaving it in some sort of charitable trust so that Wall Street doesn't get a piece of the action! (No knowledge, pure conjecture.)
DBD has some good competition and margins are shrinking. Brinkmanship with UTX didn't pan out as they didn't raise the bid. UTX will come back with a lower offer in six months and remind them how YHOO muddled their chances with MSFT! (Just guessing, no knowledge.)
Regarding FCX, copper prices are poised to fly again, wouldn't bet against them.
RE Fred Hickey:
What rebound is he talking about? H1 showed some pretty solid earnings in most sectors. Excluding banks and financial sectors the first half wasn't too shabby even for half the retailers. Materials and construction is up as well and housing stemmed the slide. Energy, metals & mining and manufacturing did very well, thank you. Hickey should pick up a history book and read about 1929 before doing comparisons. Reply
Schuering
Treat Yourself to Tootsie Roll Industries [view article]
Biggus, thank you for your comments. I agree with the timing of International expansion, i.e., direct investment. However, a joint venture with a firm might not be a bad idea at this time to at least grow the brand name. Next, WACC is much higher than its 2 competitors I discussed in the article. Obviously, the debt load of the other 2 companies is the reason for this. HSY debt/value is .783 and equity/value is .217. This gives the debt/equity ratio of 3.603 (End of year 2007). Also, I just plugged Rue of 13% into my model and this gives a stock price of $24.07, pretty much where it is trading right now. Great observation on your part. ReplyTreat Yourself to Tootsie Roll Industries [view article]
Only comment I have regards the timing of international investment: now is really not the best time to take those USD and convert them to foreign currency. TR may have boxed itself into a corner regarding overseas growth opportunities for the next 18 to 24 months. WACC of 8.5% seems low though: no real debt in capital structure, and given small size vs major competitors and the exposure to commodity price pressure I would expect a Rue in the double digits, if not mid-teens. What would a Rue of 13% do to your valuation? Reply