Jack in the Box: 18 Quarters of Same Store Sales Growth Ends

Like many retailers we’re seeing softer sales at our restaurants in California, Phoenix and Las Vegas, which have been hardest hit by the housing downturn, high fuel prices and unemployment.

- Jack In The Box Earnings Release(pdf file)

Fast food restaurant Jack In The Box (JBX) reported earnings before the open yesterday morning that were eye opening. After increasing for 18 consecutive quarters (4 1/2 years), same store sales turned negative at -0.1%. Furthermore, the company forecast a 2% decrease in same store sales for the current quarter.

lately, Jack In The Box has been a revitalized strong performer (see, for example, “Jack’s Juicy Situation” (subscription required), Barron’s, April 10, 2006), and so I take these results to be indicative of a weak economy.

Consider its recent same store sales:

2Q 2008 -0.1%

1Q 2008 +1.5%

4Q 2007+5.2%

3Q 2007 +7.4%

2Q 2007 +6.4%

1Q 2007 +5.6%

4Q 2006 +5.9%

3Q 2006 +2.9%

2Q 2006 +4.0%

1Q 2006 +5.5%

It is also worth noting that Jack In The Box restaurants are concentrated in California (906), Texas (575) and Arizona (174), with those states making up more than 75% of its total stores.

So while the front page of Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal read “Recession? Not So Fast, Say Some: Despite Pain, Economists Begin Dialing Back Dire Forecasts” (subscription required), consider me unpersuaded.

Disclosure: Top Gun has no position in Jack In The Box (JBX) shares.